Election 2024: Being So Right Never Felt So Good

Various thoughts on the 2024 elections and a plea--please encourage your friends, family & colleagues to sign up for this always interesting free newsletter.

Nov 07, 2024

What an election night? On Monday night, I issued my predictions: Donald Trump would garner 306 Electoral Votes, Republicans would snag a 53-47 U.S. Senate majority, and Republicans would maintain the U.S. House with a 224-211 margin. As thing stand right now, Trump should hit 312 Electoral Votes (+6), Republicans will secure a 54-46 U.S. Senate majority (+1), and the U.S. House will settle within one or two seats from my prediction (-1). Not bad, right? Even more impressive is that I predicted over three years ago that what happened last night would happen.

Specifically, in October 2021, I published my column, “The Bell Curve Electorate,” in which I noted that America’s electorate was sorting itself into two camps: those Americans without college degrees and those Americans with college degrees. I observed that the former were voting Republican, as the latter were siding with Democrats. The non-college degree group comprise two-thirds of voters, so winning that group would guarantee election victory. In that column, I clarified that this trend applied to white Americans and predicted that Black and Hispanic Americans would likely join their white brethren to form a powerful working class voting group. To the surprise of many, Trump drove this political realignment resulting in his decisive win on Tuesday. If Republicans can keep and expand on Trump's work, America could be governed by Republicans at the federal level for a generation or more.

Before I jump into my various thoughts on the 2024 elections, I want to list several of my columns from the last six months that proved prophetic. You really should take the time when you have it to read (or re-read) these gems.

Some of the key points from the articles above included: if Donald Trump gained a meaningful chunk of minority voters, where would Kamala Harris find the votes to replace those lost minorities?; the Democrats were overplaying the abortion card based on the data; Harris is among the weakest and most radical Democrat the Left could have replaced Joe Biden with, which just wasn’t smart; and the media needs to be held accountable by creating a process within the Federal Election Commission that quantifies the in-kind contributions it makes to Democrats.Before I jump into my various thoughts on the 2024 elections, I want to list several of my columns from the last six months that proved prophetic. You really should take the time when you have it to read (or re-read) these gems.

#1: If you didn’t think the Bidens didn’t like Harris or how Joe was shoved out the door by the Democrat Elite, Jill’s decision to wear a Republican red dress to vote on Tuesday should have dispelled you from that belief. Jill never forgot nor forgave Harris for calling Joe a racist during the 2020 Democrat presidential primary. Pending Joe’s issuance of a pardon to Hunter, the Biden’s will be laughing all the back to Wilmington knowing that Joe is the ONLY Democrat who actually beat Trump. They’ll be able to argue for the history books that Joe would have done so again had he led the ticket on Election Day. For what it is worth, if I was Biden, I would end the federal prosecutions of Trump (see below) and implore the state prosecutors to follow suit, with the hope that Trump will pardon Hunter once he is sworn in so Joe doesn’t have to.

#2: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz proved to be a disastrous pick by Harris for her running mate. He is known for coining the “weird” term the Left used in the late Summer to describe Trump and J.D. Vance, but as the months rolled by it was clear that, among the candidates, he was by far the weirdest. From his goofy mannerisms to his bizarre past, from his verbal gaffes to his serial lying about his accomplishments, Walz repelled the voters he needed to attract. Not only did he do nothing to help Harris electorally with men, he actually hurt her. How do we know? Because even in his own state, Trump narrowed the margin of loss from -7.1% in 2020 to -4.2% in 2024.

#3: It is clear a majority of Americans view the media as a worthless enterprise. It also is clear how important Elon Musk's buying Twitter was to allowing the Right to counter the massive in-kind contributions to the Left made by the media. Just having a tool in which there is an open market of ideas and speech allowing both sides to engage in their political activities was enough to drive the media farther into irrelevancy. As I’ve often said, imagine how many more elections the Right would win if the media treated both sides equally instead of giving the Left 85% positive coverage as it gave the Right 90% negative coverage.

#4: In the biggest surprise of the night, Trump won the popular vote, which a Republican has only done one other time since 1988. With his popular vote victory, Trump put to rest the Left’s incessant complaints about the Electoral College (for now). It also provides Trump with an unequivocal mandate to move on his agenda given a majority of Americans endorsed that agenda with their votes. Winning both the Electoral Vote and the popular vote should calm the waters a bit and end the Left’s plan to claim Trump is somehow an illegitimate president. Repugnant Representative Jamie Raskin should nix his plan to object to the certification of Trump’s win on January 6, 2025, as his only basis to do so now would be his own broken political antennae.

#5: Something interesting happened yesterday that most people missed. The vote margins in some states indicate that Democrats could face an increasingly harder Electoral College map over the next decade. Excluding the seven battleground states, not one Red state produced a margin that would give the Democrats hope of taking it in the future. The Democrats always claim they will snag Texas, but Trump won Texas by 13.8%, with former battleground state Florida at 13.1%. In stark contrast, five Blue states generated margins that indicate those states could be snared with some luck and hard work; namely, New Hampshire (-2.8); New Jersey (-5.0); Minnesota (-4.2); New Mexico (-5.7); and Virginia (-5.2). Republicans should closely analyze those five states for 2026 and 2028. Of note, the District of Columbia provided Harris with her best margin at 83.6%, which helped keep DC’s “never voted Republican” status. As a reminder, the lawfare waged against Trump, his allies, and the 1/6ers all took place in DC, which is why not one of those defendants stood a chance of being acquitted by a “jury of their peers,” as not one jury contained any of their peers. All the juries were highly partisan, bias juries looking to convict regardless of what the evidence showed.

#6: Winners: After Trump, the biggest winner on Tuesday was America’s working class which will get a heavy burden lifted off its back once Trump’s economic policies take hold. Vance also is a massive winner. He went from an obscure author of a rags-to-riches personal story who opposed Trump to the U.S. Senate then to the Vice Presidency in four years. His story should serve as inspiration to all Americans that you really can do great things with a discipline, handwork, and a bit of luck. Israel lands in the winner’s circle because it now has an unabashed supporter back in the White House. It was clear that the Biden-Harris Administration were not fully supportive of Israel’s response to the October 7, 2023, terrorist attack. Biden and Harris clearly allowed their personal dislike for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to cloud their actions on supporting Israel. With Trump back in the saddle, Israel will have the full support it needs to stop the terrorist madness in the Middle East. Bernie Moreno came out a winner thanks to Trump’s coattails. Trump improved on his 8% wins in 2016 and 2020 by winning Ohio by 11.3%, with Moreno besting Sherrod Brown by 4%, which closely tracks Trump’s gains in Ohio in 2024. Finally, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a big winner, too. Not only did he substantially widen the margin of victory for Republicans in Florida by the spade work his team has done in the trenches over the years, but he also beat back an attempt to curtail Florida’s abortion restrictions. DeSantis is a shining example of what a governor can do when he or she wants to lead with a powerful hand. He stands in stark contrast to Ohio Governor Mike DeWine who has presided over a stagnant jobs economy and allowed one of America’s most pro-choice abortion proposals to become part of Ohio’s Constitution a year ago. Look for a column soon on my very earlier musings on the 2028 Republican presidential primary that will feature DeSantis versus Vance.

#7: Losers: Special Prosecutor Jack Smith tried his best to take down Trump via lawfare and failed spectacularly. He even went so far as to release documents in violation of Trump’s 4th and 6th Amendment rights to no avail. The U.S. Department of Justice stated today that it would fire Smith and end the federal cases against Trump before he is sworn in two-and-a-half months from now. I’ll be curios if any law firm or corporation hires long-time legal loser Smith. Next, former President Barack Obama tried to wield his influence with blacks only to show how irrelevant he has become to black Americans. Not only didn’t the “bros” show any interest in what he was selling, they gave Trump more support than any Republican since Richard Nixon. Similarly, despite white women making Oprah Winfrey a billionaire, she decided to inject herself fully into the election by insulting the majority of them with a fraudulent and disgusting lie that the 2024 election would be the last time Americans would get to vote if Trump won, as Trump would suspend voting forever. Not surprisingly, Oprah has no plans to sell her numerous estates in America and move abroad. She has become little more than a racialist scaremonger for the Left. Sorry Taylor Swift, looks like your legions of followers didn’t have any girlpower left to help Harris. Swift needs to adopt the Michael Jordan's view on politics and focus on her music, not on virtue signaling to her left-coast friends. Obviously, another group of losers are the NeverTrumpers and Cheney family. These morons again went all in on supporting a candidate whose agenda was to do all of the anti-democratic things they accused Trump of wanting to do (i.e., pack the Supreme Court, end the filibuster, bring in new states, end of sovereignty, etc.). It was a Faustian bargain truly made in hell. Lastly, as noted in #3, the media is the biggest loser. When Jeff Bezos has to send a memo telling you you are irrelevant, you should probably listen, yet the media simply won’t.

#8: Much has been made about Trump’s desire to get payback against those who spent the last eight years unfairly attacking him via hoaxes, lawfare, and lies. I’ll leave to better angels the decision on how aggressive or forgiving Trump should be with those who used government to persecute him, but several people must be pursued for their actions lest such conduct occur again in the future. The first target must be U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for his act and omissions on the border and illegal immigrants. Because of his acts and omissions, Americans were assaulted, raped, maimed and murdered. He must be held accountable for what he did and failed to do. He should be pursued until put in jail or bankrupted. Next on the list should be General Mark Milley for his insubordination and treason over his failure to adhere to civilian control and the chain of command. America simply cannot have military leaders deciding who to respect and which commands to follow. Lastly, the Russia collusion hoax gang starting with Hillary Clinton and Jake Sullivan and going through the Mueller Report, including Jim Comey, James Clapper, John Brennan, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Susan Rice, Sally Yates, and Andrew Weissmann, must be held accountable for abusing their government power to improperly subvert and undermine Trump. If they pay no price, it will happen again.

#9: It looks like Puerto Ricans have a sense of humor, too. The Left and media overplayed the throw away joke of a comedian I never heard of that Puerto Rico is an “island of garbage.” They tried to hurt Trump with this voting block, but got stopped when Biden decided to add to the Left’s verbal assault of Main Street Americans by calling them “garbage." Trump still crushed it with Hispanic voters and a Republican won the governor’s mansion in Puerto Rico.

#10: For me this one is the cherry on top of the massive ice cream sundae: former CNN hack, John Avlon, who lied about Trump more than nearly every media person on the Left since 2016 and who left CNN to run for Congress in New York lost his race badly. Hopefully, the eleven-point humiliation will quiet Avlon down a bit and CNN won’t bring him back as a commentator. CNN, as with most media outlets, needs to reduce the left-wing mouthpieces it employs and replace them with a few conservatives who can balance out their broadcasts.

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