Cognitive Dissonance: Where Is Kamala Harris Going to Get the Votes To Beat Donald Trump If More Minority Voters, More Voters Without a College Degree, and More Younger Voters Are Supporting Him?

Not being Donald Trump is vastly better than being progressive Left fire-breather Kamala Harris.

Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines “cognitive dissonance” as "psychological conflict resulting from incongruous beliefs and attitudes held simultaneously.” In this column, I am using it to refer to my belief based on everything I see and read that Donald Trump will win the 2024 Presidential Election versus the polling data that indicates he is losing to Kamala Harris. Let me explain.

As you know, the 2016 Presidential election was won by Trump by 77,000 votes in three states, yet the final polls had Hillary Clinton winning by 4.3% on Election Day. Four years later, the 2020 Presidential election was won by Biden by 43,000 in three states, yet the final polls had him winning by over 8% on Election Day. Thus, in two out of two presidential elections involving Trump, the polls have been fairly off when compared to the final results and always to Trump’s detriment. With just over six weeks to go, the polling has Harris up by 2.2% (her biggest lead), so less than both Clinton and Biden. Does that mean that Trump will win by north of 77,000 votes in three states, which would be a win, but another razor thin win?

Based on everything I read, it seems that Trump should be up by several points. My brain and gut shout that Trump should win and win comfortably, but the damn polls keep saying he won’t. Here are the reasons for why my brain and gut refuse to accept the polls:

• The comparison between Trump and Harris on the economy, immigration, and foreign policy is glaringly in Trump’s favor based on voters’ own life experiences;

• While Trump is disliked by female voters, Harris also suffers from the unlikability factor, with men especially turned off by her, so unfavorability is a wash;

• Harris is uniquely vacuous for a presidential candidate having failed to articulate much of a policy agenda and increasingly vague about her past highly progressive Left positions, which her media allies let her get away with because they want her to win;

• Harris is afraid to face undecided voters in any format and runs from any media inquiries, as Trump faces any and all questions; 

• When Harris has done interviews or town halls (even highly fake ones like the one Oprah Winfrey moderated), she comes across as unserious, cliche driven, and weak;

• Polling and man-on-the-street interviews indicate Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and even Jews are planning to vote for Trump in record numbers;

• Similarly, Trump’s support from rank-and-file union members is hitting highs as best illustrated by the Teamsters Union refusing to endorse Harris in 2024 and the creation of the Auto Workers for Trump group; 

• Trump is doing better with younger voters than in 2016 and 2020;

• Catholic voters are supporting Trump by ten points, which historically means he will win;

• Early voting numbers in key states show that Harris’ advantage over Trump is less than Biden’s lead in 2020;

• Two—not one—but two assassination attempts made Trump look strong and the Left look dangerous due to its over-the-top rhetoric; 

• The unprecedented withdrawal of Biden and undemocratic process that anointed Harris as his replacement, as well as the continued videos of Biden looking increasingly out-of-it; and

• Anecdotal evidence indicating that Trump’s lead among men and voters without a college degree will be larger than it was against Clinton and Biden without a parallel loss among women and educated voters, as there are far more voters without a college degree than voters with a college degree.

All of these factors would seem to point to a solid Trump win in November, yet prognosticators increasingly point to a Harris win.

The biggest disconnect I’m seeing is that, if Trump in fact gets a greater share of votes from minorities and union members and voters without a college degree turn out to vote in larger numbers than in 2020 as expected, even with a concomitant higher turnout by voters with a bachelors degree, where is Harris getting the votes to not just replace the lost minority votes but also to push her ahead in battleground states? Remember, it doesn’t matter if she beats Trump by ten million votes in California. She must beat him in the battleground states to cobble together 270 Electoral Votes. So where in the world is she getting replacement voters in the battleground states? This question is why those of us on the Right worry deeply about illegal immigrants voting, unverifiable mass mail-in voting, and nefarious dropbox voting. The Democrat’s top henchman lawyer Mark Elias might be an utter slimeball who would throw his own mother under the bus to help Democrats win by hook or crook, but he is very smart and far more adept at staying one or two steps ahead of Republican lawyers and strategists. As 2020 showed, courts simply will not substantively delve into voting irregularities so whoever each state certifies as the winner is the winner no matter how that winner won.

I’m not the only one with cognitive dissonance. CNN’s Anderson Cooper recently said, "I mean, I report on [the polls], I think they are interesting to talk about, and look at, particularly when you dive deep on certain topics. We have some great people that look at polls. But in truth, deep down inside, I don’t think I buy them.” Deep down inside, I don’t buy them either due to the factors noted above. After eight years of 90% negative Trump news coverage—95% after the second assassination attempt, are a growing number of Trump voters simply unwilling to state to pollsters that they are voting for him? Given that stating support for Trump can get you alienated, shunned (see Brittany Mahomes), and even disinherited, are even more voters hiding their Trump support to remain in the good graces of their families, friends, and coworkers?  

The last time I felt this way was in the hours and days after the 2020 presidential election. In the hours after the polls closed, PBS’s Firing Line host Margaret Hoover kept pinging me asking me if I thought Trump would win Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. I’d run through my analysis to check and recheck my numbers, always coming back to the same answer, “Yes.” I felt like she knew something I didn’t know and, as the wife of CNN liar and hack John Avlon, my suspicions grew. Once Georgia and Arizona were called for Biden after late night vote surges, I was dumbstruck. The outcome made no sense. Cognitive dissonance set in. It was only after the extensive reporting from Miranda Devine, Mollie Hemingway, Paul Sperry, and others on the sheer scale of the Democrat’s unverified vote harvesting activities, suspicious abrupt vote counting location closures, the impact of the Dirty 51 letter re Hunter Biden’s laptop on voters, and other revelations showing that the 2020 presidential election was “rigged” that Biden’s razor thin win and Hoover’s hubris made sense.

At any rate, Harris is running an explicit “I’m not Donald Trump” campaign so doesn’t believe there is any pressure to articulate her policies or do tough interviews. As her representative, Stephanie Ruhle, stated on Real Time with Bill Maher: "If you don't like her answer, are you going to vote for Trump? Kamala Harris is not running for perfect, she is running against Trump. We have two choices. There are some things that you might not know her answer to. In 2024, we know exactly what Trump will do, who he is, and the kind of threat he is to democracy.” Harris’s view is that a large enough group of voters won’t vote for Trump and will vote for her because she isn’t Trump that, together with her progressive base, will push her over the line in enough states to hit the 270 Electoral Vote threshold. Not being Donald Trump is vastly better than being progressive Left fire-breather Kamala Harris.

Will she be proved right? If she is wrong, will she and her progressive Left base accept the results of the election that puts the reins of American power back into the hands of a man who they deem to be an existential threat to America? A meaningful chunk of those people refused to accept the results in 2016. After eight years of assassination rhetoric from the Left’s leaders, will that chunk be larger? More violent? We will know in forty-four days. Until then, we will just have to live with the cognitive dissonance.

P.S. I don’t know about you, but I am sooooooo tired of the avalanche of texts and emails I get from Republican candidates, especially Donald Trump, asking for money. On any given day, I will get no less than ten texts and emails asking for money. The worst one of late is “from” J.D. Vance with "a highly classified debate memo for Matt,” as if anyone other than Hillary Clinton would text or email anything top secret. To me, these solicitations are mere annoyances. To others more susceptible to such bunk, they are predatory fishing expeditions aimed at vulnerable seniors and dimwitted sycophants that too often result in their hard-earned money being sent to these candidates. I really wish there was more we could do to end this unscrupulous system. My email and telephone number have been sold and resold to hundreds of candidates without me having any say. No one should have to spend every other Fall inundated by junk mail in any form.