Why Can’t Ohio’s Leaders Have a Reaganesque Bold Color Mindset Like Ron DeSantis?

Our political leaders should scrap the talk of minimal cuts and layout the plan to eliminate the state income tax completely by a date certain in the future, as they already could have done.

Florida has no personal income tax. Along with its right-to-work law passed in 1944, being one of nine no personal income tax states is a main driver of its massive growth over the last sixty years. For you “its the warm weather” zealots, Florida has had warm weather since America’s founding, yet, as of the 1960 U.S. Census, Florida was only the 10th most populous state with 4.952 million citizens compared to Ohio coming in at 5th with 9.706 million residents (i.e., Ohio was nearly five million people BIGGER). By the 2020 U.S. Census, Florida had skyrocketed to the #3 spot with 21.538 million people—an increase of more than three times its 1960 figure, as Ohio dropped two spots to #7 with just over one million more folks after sixty years (i.e., Florida now nearly DOUBLES Ohio’s population). Texas (no state income tax and right-to-work) also went from just behind Ohio in 1960 to almost three times as populous as Ohio by 2020.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis isn’t resting on his laurels. In response to an X follower asking him about repealing property taxes, DeSantis noted:

Property taxes are local, not state. So we’d need to do a constitutional amendment (requires 60% of voters to approve) to eliminate them (which I would support) or even to reform/lower them. We should put the boldest amendment on the ballot that has a chance of getting that 60%. I agree that taxing land/property is the more oppressive and ineffective form of taxation

Whether Florida can repeal property taxes or just reduce them in a meaningful way, DeSantis and the Florida legislature are pushing forward on making their state as hospitable for people and businesses as possible.

In stark contrast to DeSantis is Ohio under Mike DeWine and Ohio’s Republican supermajority legislature. After the latter announced they want to cut the personal income tax a little bit more (i.e., more nibbling on the margins), DeWine responded by saying “gosh no.” Yet, DeWine is eager to hike taxes in other areas. Specifically, along with doubling the cigarette tax and tripling the marijuana tax, DeWine wants to "double the sports gaming tax to help pay for stadium projects, such as upgrades to the Cincinnati Bengals’ Paycor Stadium and a new stadium for the Cleveland Browns.” Ah, yes, let’s tax low income Ohioans and sports fans so multi-millionaire NFL franchise owners can upgrade or build new stadiums. Ohio’s political class must have missed Ronald Reagan’s speeches beginning in 1976 where he implored our leaders to build “[a] Republican Party, raising a banner of bold colors, no pale pastels.” Ohio’s leaders push little OTHER THAN pale pastels.

Where is Ohio’s Reagan? DeSantis? Donald Trump?

Rather than pushing the pale pastel of another minor cut to the personal income tax, Ohio’s leaders should be throwing down the bold color policy to eliminate the personal income tax. I mean, seriously, why would that policy end NOT be the goal? Yes, tough choices would need to be made, which heretofore have not been made, but there is no time like the present to start emulating our top competitors instead of continuing with the pale pastel status quo that has resulted in tepid job growth for decades, stagnant population growth, weak education results, and a state and local tax burden in the top third of America. It would take two policy changes.

First, Ohio would need to repeal the Medicaid program expanded under Obamacare by fiat under John Kasich. The year before Kasich expanded Medicaid, its total cost to Ohioans stood at just under $12.5 billion with 2.35 million enrollees. Eleven years later, it now has over three million enrollees costing Ohioans roughly $22 billion per year. Under DeWine’s just submitted 2026-2027 budget (above), Medicaid spending will hit $24 million, or 93% more than where it stood on the eve of Kasich’s Medicaid expansion (6.19% more on average every year). It now swallows more than 50% of the state budget, which is why you must eliminate expanded Medicaid in order to eliminate the personal income tax. Medicaid spending will drive state spending up 77% by 2027 to a gobsmacking $46.7 billion, which translates to an increase of 5.12% annually. Functionally, Kasich’s expanded Medicaid has outsourced control of Ohio’s state budget to the federal government via its Medicaid policies. That was just stupid.

Our leaders should have limited spending increases to inflation plus population growth increases. Had they done that, the state budget would have gone from $26.4 billion in 2012 to $36.3 billion by 2027. Instead of average spending increases of 5.12%, taxpayers would have only had to fund increases of 3.12% each year. Why do I use inflation plus population growth? Simple. There is no reason government spending needs to EXCEED the rate of inflation (i.e., the cost of goods and services) plus the needs of a growing population (i.e., more government services). That approach is the fiscally conservative mindset we should expect of our allegedly fiscally conservative political leaders. Had our political leaders taken this fiscally conservative approach, Ohio’s annual budget as noted above would be $9.4 billion smaller today and $10.3 billion smaller in 2027.

Why are those figures meaningful? Guess how much tax revenue comes from the personal income tax? In the last fiscal year (July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024), Ohio collected $9.5 billion from the state income tax. Thus, with a little cut elsewhere, had Ohio’s political leaders started phasing out the state income tax in 2012, NOT expanding Medicaid under Obamacare in 2013, and restrained spending increases to the 3.12% average of inflation plus population growth, the state income tax could have been totally eliminated this year for Ohioans, thereby making Ohio the tenth state without an income tax. Imagine how fantastic that would have been for promoting Ohio. That momentous occasion would have made Ohio substantially more attractive to businesses no matter what DeWine says (ask wealthy Ohioans who all have 2nd homes in Florida and other no income tax states if it matters). Thus, our political leaders should scrap the talk of minimal cuts and layout the plan to eliminate the state income tax completely by a date certain in the future.

In related news, instead of eliminating the ineffective JobsOhio boondoggle for bureaucrats in which they spend billions trying to pick winners and losers in the marketplace, Ohio’s policymakers granted JobsOhio a fifteen-year extension. For frequent readers of this column, you know that I’ve extensively laid out the case against JobsOhio by pointing out that Ohio’s private sector job growth has gotten WEAKER the longer it has been in business. Don’t believe me? Let’s use JobsOhio’s own numbers to show its bullshit claims on Ohio’s private sector growth. Every year, JobsOhio issues an annual report that includes its claim of the number of jobs its work has added to Ohio’s private sector. Since its creation, it claims to have added 644,349 jobs. Based on its own numbers, in its first seven years, JobsOhio added jobs averaged 71,943. In the last six years, that figure has plummeted to just 23,458 added jobs on average. Let’s pretend for a minute its claims are accurate (ignore the multiple years in which it claims to have added far more jobs than Ohio actually added). According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ohio’s private sector ACTUALLY added only 615,700 jobs since 2011. Thus, JobsOhio claims it added 28,649 MORE jobs than Ohio actually added. I’m no math genius, but that seems to be lefty math.

If you believe JobsOhio’s claim, I have some Hunter Biden paintings you can buy for dirt cheap that are worth millions. Again, excluding the pandemic losses in 2020 and recovery of those lost jobs in 2021 and 2022 (technically, Ohio didn’t fully recover the 2020 losses until adding 11,600 jobs in 2023), notice in the table above that Ohio’s private sector growth went from adding on average 84,875 new jobs from 2011 to 2014 to just 48,500 new jobs in 2023 and 2024. It bears repeating: Ohio’s private sector growth GOT WEAKER the LONGER JobsOhio has been doing its work. If it is so good at what it does, shouldn’t the opposite be true—the LONGER JobsOhio does its work, Ohio’s private sector gets STRONGER?

Am I missing something, folks? No. No, I’m not. Our elected officials just rewarded an epic failure with even more money to fail more epically trying to bribe companies to stay or come here.

P.S. Ohio’s elected officials aren't the only profligate spenders. Due to years of excessive federal spending, America’s national debt is now so large that we will pay nearly $14 TRILLION in interest on that debt over the next decade.

P.P.S. As I laid out during the fourth segment on Tuesday when I filled in for Bruce Hooley on 98.9FM The Answer, per Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the use of tariffs by Trump is a one step back, two step forward move to reset global trade so that America and its trading partners have no barriers to entry coming or going. It will be worth it in the long term for a little short term pain.