Will the Left’s Carbon War Impact the 2024 Elections and Deepen the Schism Between the States?
At some point, one group of states will refuse to be ruled by the other group. When we reach that point, the great American experiment may come to a close.
Growing up, I watched "The Price Is Right” game show always wondering why the guy who described prizes noted that cars had “California emissions.” Being an Ohioan, that meant nothing to me. It just stood out as an odd thing to say. Forty years later, that little throw-away blurb now could decide whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the presidential election and which party controls Congress. It also could signify one of the earliest moments when a war between the states began. A war that could result in the eventual dissolution of America that I’ve previously raised.
Due to an increase in pollution, specifically smog, in Southern California during the 1960s and 1970s, the federal government under the Clean Air Act allowed California to set its own emissions standards for automobiles. That standard was stricter than the standard in the other states. Some states adopted California’s stricter emissions standards. Over time due to the sheer purchasing power of California as the most populous state (by far for decades along with New York) and its ever-ratcheting up of compliance requirements, the automobile industry started making cars that were compliant with California’s stricter emissions standards. After all, it was more cost-effective to make automobiles that complied with California’s standard than to make two or more separate lines making the same car or truck for different states.
With the advent of the Left’s zealous Green New Deal era aimed at combating climate change, California and its allies across the Left are pushing to kill the internal combustion engine (ICE) with all 220 million ICE automobiles required to be replaced by allegedly carbon-neutral Electric Vehicles (EV). I won’t get into it here, but more studies are coming out showing that EVs are, in fact, WORSE for the environment than ICE automobiles due to the enormous mining operations involved with finding rare earth metals needed for the EV batteries, the transport and processing of those metals, the particulate matter thrown into the air from tires carrying the much heavier EVs, the same mining and processing destruction needed to build the EV charging grid, the need to use carbon-based energy sources to power EV chargers, and the disposal of the toxic EV batteries.
If you want to get wicked smart on this issue, I highly suggest you take twenty minutes to watch Dr. Scott Tinker, a well-respected geologist, have an “honest and sensible conversation about global energy.” It truly is a must watch video. For those keeping count, America today has the cleanest air, land, and water it has had in over 100 years. Any additional cleanliness is only marginal at this point (i.e., very small gains), but requires enormous investments (i.e., very high costs = higher taxes + more national debt + higher prices).
With Biden now in the White House, the Green New Dealers have an ally who will do whatever they want to keep their progressive voters engaged and motivated. To that end, California announced that it would BAN the sale of ICE automobiles by 2035. Eight other states have announced they are adopting California’s 2035 goal. Those states are:
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Not surprisingly, all of these states are Blue states (sorry, folks, Virginia is a Blue state) dominated by the Left. I think it is safe to assume that other reliably Blue states will join these states (Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and New Mexico). The big question is will reliably Red states form a coalition to push back on the Blue states aiming to kill ICE automobiles?
Again trying to use its population power, California’s aim is to force automakers to stop making ICE automobiles and only make EVs. The problem, however, is a lot has changed since 1970 in terms of population. California is still number one, but it is now losing people as they flee its high taxes and nutty regulations while Texas is closing fast and Florida also is booming. In total, the Blue states contain roughly 138 million Americans. The Red states contain 156 million Americans, or 18 million more and counting as people vote with their feet to move from Blue states to Red states. I categorize six states as Purple states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), which contain another 41 million people.
This population balance puts automakers in a very precarious position because they are led by people who think like the Blue staters and who want to appease the Left, but their rank-and-file workers and largest consumers are Red staters, with truck buyers being the top and most profitable market for automakers. To make matters more explosive, Biden just announced he is going to crack down on diesel trucks, which carry most of our consumer goods, including food. Biden’s diesel truck rule will crush the trucking industry and will drive prices higher on most consumer staples. Biden doesn’t seem to care.
The real question is will voters care? My sense is, with inflation already driving consumer prices through the roof, voters are especially sensitive to any effort that does more damage to the economy and sends prices they pay for everyday goods higher. The impact the one-two punch of California’s anti-ICE move and Biden’s diesel attack will be huge and will face enormous hostility in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that contain large numbers of autoworkers. These two issues could decide the 2024 election.
Longer term, if this cold war between the states over ICE versus EV automobiles heats up, it could signal the moment when the dissolution of America started (it actually started during Ronald Reagan’s presidency), as I doubt many Red states will capitulate to losing their ICE vehicles. It is not hard to imagine other issues aggravating this schism such as the Left’s war on appliances, the introduction of a carbon tax, discrimination against ICE vehicles in Blue states (i.e., elimination of gas stations), and other job-killing mandates from the federal government if controlled by the Left or California if the Right doesn’t reemerge there. As I wrote back in November 2023:
Finally, the tyranny of California regulations may accelerate the unraveling of America. Specifically, with its huge (but shrinking) market, California thinks it can force the rest of America to adhere to its zealous climate change beliefs. By banning the internal combustion engine by 2035, California wants to force automakers to dedicate an increasing amount of its production to electric vehicles (EV), resulting in the rest of America being forced into EVs whether they like or not. The same goes for other types of manufacturing that California wants to mandate be done according to its “environmentally friendly” dictates. As level-headed Americans flee the Blue states leaving a greater concentration of left-wing voters, politicians in those states like California will keep ratcheting up their virtue signaling with ever-more progressive policies. Just look how the progressive Left is accommodating antisemitism and supporting Hamas after its terrorist attack on Israel. The fracture between the Blue and Red states will only grow bigger.
As the pandemic showed, it is hard to imagine how much more different Red and Blue states can become. At some point, one group of states will refuse to be ruled by the other group. When we reach that point, the great American experiment may come to a close.