We Should Use the Law of Parsimony When It Comes to Explaining the Suspicious 1/6 Pipe Bombs

Continued silence will only breed more conspiracy talk and undermine the trust Americans have in its government.

Over the years, the Right has gotten caught up in lots of conspiracy theories, with the best being that the Clintons have murdered over fifty people. When it comes to the events of 1/6, I would strenuously urge a bit of caution in assuming the worst aspects of a “fedsurrection” and apply the law of parsimony/Occam’s razor to the issue. I’m not suggesting that the federal government didn’t have lots of undercover law enforcement personnel and other assets mixed within the crowd that day or that those individuals didn’t engage or encourage the worst parts of what happened (sorry, but the explanation on why Ray Epps only got hit with a misdemeanor just doesn’t wash). I’ve written extensively about the two standards of justice used against 1/6ers, including against a good friend’s son. When it comes to the two pipe bombs discovered near the Republican National Committee (RNC) and Democratic National Committee (DNC) headquarters, however, I do think we should be careful before getting out too far over our skis.

Specifically, Darren Beattie of The Revolver put out a new video last week showing an undercover law enforcement officer letting officers in D.C. Metropolitan Police and Secret Service SUVs know about the DNC pipe bomb just a few feet away. Given that both SUVs were there to protect Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris who was at the DNC, the total nonchalance with which the officers in those vehicles then went about investigating the allegedly active pipe bomb is shocking. The shock is increased as they let a group of school kids walk right by the pipe bomb and when considering that the RNC pipe bomb had just been “discovered” ten minutes earlier, which would have been broadcast to all law enforcement personnel in the National Capital Region.

After his reveal, Beattie then went on Tucker Carlson’s show to discuss the video and his theory that the pipe bomb was planted by federal agents as part of the fedsurrection. Thereafter, lots of commentators on the Right began pushing Beattie’s theory. To be clear, Beattie may be totally right about this theory. I commented on his tweet about the new video positing an alternative explanation, which he ignored (in fairness, he’s been busy). 

As I noted in the tweet, I think it is more likely that the pipe bombs were part of a poorly timed federal exercise than a fedsurrection. Why? Because when I worked for President George W. Bush at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security from 2004 to 2006, I lead the National Exercise Program that involved doing exercises with first preventers and first responders to test their capabilities to detect, to stop, to respond, and to recover from terrorist attacks. We created scenarios used by state and local governments, as well as conducted the $20 million biannual Top Officials exercise (TOPOFF) involving the entire federal government, state and local governments, and international partners.

I also believe the pipe bombs were a poorly timed federal exercise because the woman who found the RNC bomb just so happened to have a job at that time that is the EXACT kind of job a federal contractor involved in doing exercises would have. On January 6, 2021, Karlin Younger was the Investment Lead for the First Responder Network Authority where she “planned and funded multi-year strategic enhancements to the FirstNet network to benefit public safety.” FirstNet bills itself as “the only nationwide communication network for public safety.” A network one would use during a pipe bomb terrorist attack.

Next, as Beattie noted, the fact that both bombs had one-hour timers on them would strongly indicate those bombs (1) weren’t put where they were found seventeen hours before President Donald Trump was even done speaking and (2) weren’t active (or they would have exploded). The federal government used geocaching and camera data to track the man who allegedly planted the pipe bombs on January 5, but came up empty despite knowing who that guy is, which puts into question the official story we’ve been fed. If I’m right, the pipe bombs were placed in the locations where they were found earlier that morning. Furthermore, the two people who discovered the pipe bombs likely were part of the exercise and made their discoveries to help move the exercise along. The massive protest speech Donald Trump was giving and the Electoral Vote counting in Congress that day would have been a good way to test prevention and response capabilities given the system would have been stressed by all of the activity. 

Finally, the lackadaisical response by the law enforcement personnel in the two SUVs after being told about the DNC pipe bomb screams prior knowledge that the pipe bombs weren’t real and were part of a federal exercise. No one dealing with the pipe bombs AT THAT TIME would have known what was to unfold in the next hour on Capitol Hill. The fact that VP-elect Harris wasn’t immediately cleared of the building and the school kids were allowed to stroll on by indicates that everyone knew the situation was not real. Otherwise, the RNC pipe bomb discovery ten minutes earlier would have caused alarm bells to blare, thereby spurring a massively different response the moment the DNC pipe bomb discoverer shared his details with the two SUV occupants.

I also believe the RNC pipe bomb, if real and not part of a federal exercise, would have resulted in a surge of law enforcement and military personnel around the National Mall, including the evacuation of Trump from his speech by the Secret Service. That didn’t happen though. The casual manner in which one law enforcement individual takes a picture of it, along with calling in the robot to disable it all indicate to me an exercise to test prevention and response. In TOPOFF3, we literally scripted events to the minute to control for gaming of the exercise. For example, we held dozens of real first responders at bay ten minutes outside of New London, Connecticut, following a fake mustard gas release and a vehicle-borne explosive device to make sure they couldn’t get to the site unrealistically fast. Similarly, in the days leading up to the terrorist attack in the exercise, we inserted fake intel into the intelligence pipelines to see if analysts would find those “needles in the haystack."

Everything about the pipe bombs looks, feels, and smells like a federal exercise. I first raised my suspicion that the pipe bombs were really a poorly timed federal exercise back in May 2023.

I repeated that theory in June 2023.

Again, Beattie’s theory of a fedsurrection may be right, but the law of parsimony/Occam’s Razor posits that the simplest explanation is likely the right one. In this case, the simplest explanation is a poorly timed federal exercise that needed to be covered up once the Capitol riot started and partisan Members and the media started to magnify the presence of the allegedly live pipe bombs. As Beattie raises, given how much of a partisan hack she is, Harris would have waved around the pipe bombs like Jesse Jackson did the bloody shirt given her presence near one of the pipe bombs UNLESS SHE HAD BEEN TOLD TO KEEP QUIET ABOUT IT. She has flogged the 1/6 riots as an insurrection nonstop over the last three years, so her silence on the pipe bombs is highly suspicious. With the absence of guns at the Capitol riot, the pipe bombs are the only real weapons the Left can point to that raises the 1/6 riot from something that got out of hand to a pre-planned attack. With all of the signals intelligence available to investigators, the fact that we still don’t have a pipe bomber (or the Dobbs decision leaker) simply makes no sense. 

Instead of continuing the charade, the federal government needs to come clean about the pipe bombs so we can either (1) know of its role in a fedsurrection or (2) know it was just a poorly timed federal exercise. Continued silence will only breed more conspiracy talk and undermine the trust Americans have in its government. If I am wrong and Beattie et al. are right, our civil liberties are in grave peril from a federal government leviathan that knows no limits.

P.S. With the withdrawal of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis from the Republican presidential primary race, it is down to Trump versus Nikki Haley. Haley stands no chance against Trump, especially with DeSantis’ endorsement. She will lose in New Hampshire and get crushed in South Carolina, which will be a massive embarrassment given she was governor there for eight years. Every major political figure in South Carolina has endorsed Trump. Barring a health issue hitting either man, the 2024 general election will be Trump versus Joe Biden, which will present voters with a stark contrast election and choice. It will be a wild ride, so buckle up!