Wait, Didn’t I Say That Already?

Seeing around corners is a blessing and a curse, as it allows me to predict or to anticipate events, but too many policymakers ignore what I put forth to Ohio's and its citizens' detriments.

I know you may get tired of hearing me say these types of things, but I get tired of saying things first yet receiving no credit for it. The latest comes by way of Realtor.com that published its analysis that Texas would become America’s most populous state some time around 2045. Realtor.com estimates Texas will hit 42 million residents in 2045 to surpass California, which is bleeding residents and businesses to Texas (and other freedom loving states). Back in June and July 2022, I released our “Projected 2050 Population & Political Power Series” that did a deep analysis of population trends at both the national and state level. Based on the 2000, 2010, 2020 U.S. Census data, I estimated that by 2050, Texas would be virtually tied with California as America’s most populous states. I estimated that by 2050 Texas would possess 51,354,483 residents compared to California at 51,812,122. The global pandemic accelerated my estimates given the two drastically different lockdowns that occurred in Texas and California, which is why the Realtor.com estimate moved the date when Texas surpasses California to 2045. I detailed how the population shifts would increase the electoral odds for Republicans to win the presidency going forward, as red states like Texas gained Electoral Votes from blue states like California.

My analysis also analyzed population trends in Ohio’s eighty-eight counties. That analysis showed that a majority of Ohio’s counties are hollowing out; meaning, those counties are losing people and the jobs that go with them. Of Ohio’s eighty-eight counties, only thirty-nine counties will grow over the coming decades, as forty-nine counties shrink. These population trends present policymakers with important challenges. For example, as the state with the fourth highest number of taxing jurisdictions, does it make sense to consolidate counties and school districts to reflect population losses so local taxes can be reduced? After all, do three neighboring counties with smaller population bases both still need one county commission each, or can those commissions be consolidated into a tri-county commission with one-third the staff and costs? The same goes for school districts and their boards of education. Conversely, with most of the new projects going to the Greater Columbus and Cincinnati areas, how can policymakers reinvigorate the hollowing out areas?

When I explored a run for governor in 2023, I proposed a five-star resort complex in the area near The Wilds in Logan and Muskingum Counties. Such a project could include a world-class golf course, conference facilities, fishing and hunting opportunities, and rafting and hiking, as well as other leisure activities. With a substantial investment to make The Wilds into a top zoological facility, the project could spur substantial job opportunities for Southeast Ohio focused on leisure, hospitality, construction, research, and professional services. Such a visionary project would include expanding the transportation routes to those counties and would be greatly benefited by building the world-class airport I’ve previously detailed in past posts in southern Columbus. Short of such a project, the odds of luring large manufacturing projects to southeast Ohio are low. As I’ve repeatedly asked: why should only the Greater Columbus and Greater Cincinnati areas benefit from Ohio’s economic development activities? The Intel and Anduril projects could be great for the Greater Columbus area, but those projects also will accelerate the hollowing out of southeast Ohio and other rural counties, as the K-12 graduates in those counties flee for better opportunities in “the big city.”

Another example comes from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Kimberly Strassel’s recent column on the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), “The GOP’s DOGE Test,” echoed my November 2024 column in terms of true congressional support for DOGE’s efforts. In my November 19, 2024, column, “My Unsolicited Advice to Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy on DOGE and Its Future” I wrote:

Don’t be surprised when Republicans in Congress and fellow Trump Administration appointees quietly undermine your work. When I went to Washington, D.C., to help stand up DHS after the 9/11 terrorist attack, I naively believed that Republicans in Congress and my fellow Republican appointees would fight with me shoulder-to-shoulder against Democrat opposition to get important work done for the American people. What I learned, however, was that everyone in Washington, D.C., has their own agendas that often times conflicts with getting things done or serving the people. I spent more time at DHS fighting FEMA Administrator Mike “heckuva’ job” Brown’s and his team's non-stop efforts to takeover my office simply because they wanted the $3.5 billion terrorism grants checkbook I controlled than dealing with Democrat efforts in Congress to undermine the Bush Administration. The number of territorial battles and ego stand-offs I had to fight with fellow Bush appointees was maddening and draining.

Similarly, most of our efforts to reform terrorist grant programs to minimize automatic pork payments to states and cities by maximizing a risk-based approach that bought down risks and consequences to Americans were opposed and stealthily curbed by both Republicans and Democrats in Congress. Why? Because they lived on promoting the pork they brought home to their districts and states regardless of whether that pork did anything to make their constituents safer. Be forewarned: fellow Trump Administration appointees in all of those departments, offices, and agencies you want to reform will have countless Grima Wormtongues whispering in their ears about why they should covertly work against your efforts and Republicans in Congress will give you lip service about the importance of your efforts all the while moving to protect their pork. Saying you will reform government turns out to be far harder than doing it. Pay particular attention to how many Republicans join Representative Aaron Bean’s newly-created “DOGE Caucus” as an anecdote of congressional support for your work. It has three members so far.

I’m not suggesting Strassel thugged my work; rather, I’m merely pointing out that it took her and the WSJ three months to state what I saw clearly shortly after the election. Fox News’ Jesse Watters of The Five is another example of this “cut, but don’t cut mine" mentality. He went on a tirade about his friend who lost a job due to DOGE cuts at the Pentagon. He noted that the friend was “[a] 20-year veteran of the US Military, one of these guys in these elite units [who has] killed a lot of bad guys. Put his life on the line. Now he [has] punched out after 20 years and [has since been] working for the Pentagon.” Not to be harsh, but if Watters’ friend is a 20-year vet that means he qualified for a full military pension and excellent lifetime health care via the military’s TriCare program. Thus, unlike most government and private sector workers who have lost their jobs, Watters' friend was a double dipper; meaning, he was pulling his monthly military pension AND getting paid for his Pentagon work. Not exactly the best case for arguing against DOGE’s efforts.

On a related note, Elon Musk noted that DOGE scrutiny would be like a “daily proctology exam” which strongly resembles my state-based DOGE-like idea from my January 2023 gubernatorial policy proposal to create a group to reform state government. Specifically, I wrote that my DOGE-like "review won't be a typical soft-ball gimmick focused on issuing press releases, but will be like an endoscopy and colonoscopy that dig deeply into the bowels of state government to ensure its healthy and, where it isn't, fix it or flush it.” Again, I’m merely noting that being famous doesn’t equate to being original:-) One DOGE action was to save $8 million by canceling agency subscriptions to news organizations. As I mentioned while hosting The Bruce Hooley Show recently, I took that action at my agency twenty years ago. Back then, when I would come to work before most of the bureaucrats arrived I would see stacks of Washington Posts, New York Times, and USA Today newspapers in the reception area. I learned upon asking that many government employees would order a subscription to be paid by taxpayers that was little more than their personal copy. I immediately moved to stop the practice reducing each publication to a single copy. I’m glad DOGE discovered this widespread practice and ended it. Better late than never.

Finally, as I’ve written about several times, the downside of Trump’s courting of Big Labor is the possibility that the new coalition he has ridden to victory will only hold if the Republican Party becomes permanently pro-Big Labor. Trump’s (and Vance’s) Big Labor sentiments relegate red states like Ohio that have yet to enact right-to-work into a permanent underclass of states along with the progressive forced unionization blue states. As I wrote a year ago in “Trump Bringing Rank-and-File Union Members to the Right Makes It Virtually Impossible for Ohio to Escape Its Systemically Weak Job Growth”:

Trump, like Ronald Reagan, has grown the Republican Party by appealing to large swaths of new voters who historically voted for Democrats. I welcome those men and women to the fold, but I don’t do so by blindly ignoring the enormous cost Ohioans will bear for their support. It is a cost that states that were right-to-work by 2016 or heavily Blue states that will never put worker freedom ahead of the Big Labor bosses who fund Democrat campaigns don’t have to pay. Ohio and Missouri (which enacted a right-to-work law that got overturned by a Big Labor funded special election) are the only reliably Red states wallowing in the bottom fifteen for job growth that pay the heavy price Trump’s new voters demand to remain on the Right.

That price: being relegated to a dead state walking in which population and job growth stagnant in perpetuity.

I take comfort in seeing the WSJ push for the Right to continue to defend worker freedom versus get totally in bed with Big Labor. It simply isn’t worth the costs. As I’ve long documented, right-to-work states produce private sector jobs at more than twice the rate of forced unionization states (74% versus 33%), with Ohio coming in at the back of the pack at a scant 18.6% net job growth since 1990.

Seeing around corners is both a blessing and a curse. It is a blessing, as it allows me to predict or to anticipate events before they happen so those who follow my work can benefit from what I see coming down the pipeline. It is a curse, as it can drive me crazy how often others get credit, fortune, and/or fame for saying what I already said. More critically, it is a curse because too many policymakers ignore what I put forth to the detriment of Ohio, its citizens, and their businesses, which can be utterly maddening.

For those interested, listen to my latest interview on The Bruce Hooley Show when we talked about Donald Trump’s Goal vis-a-vis Europe, DOGE’s efforts, and Franklin County’s DEI funding.