Think Outside-the-Box to Beat Trump

Trump was an outside-the-box candidate in 2016. If Republicans really want to beat Donald Trump in 2024, they also need to think outside-the-box.

I’m probably wrong. Maybe Donald Trump can be defeated in the 2024 Republican primary the old-fashioned way where everyone who is interested throws his or her hat in the ring, the candidates debate, and voters decide who should get the nomination. Maybe he won’t have the magic he had in 2016 when he bested sixteen highly qualified candidates. Maybe he has worn out his welcome with a majority of Republican primary voters.

Or, maybe not.

Unlike in 2016, Trump starts the primary season with over $100 million in the bank and the fundraising infrastructure to add substantially to that figure. Though Trump certainly brings baggage with him, he also brings lots of great victories from his presidency that many Republican voters appreciate.

Those victories include a 6-3 conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court; the overturning of Roe v Wade and likely affirmative action by that court; excellent job and wage growth across all segments; massive deregulation; growing peace in the Middle East via the Abraham Accords; greater European contributions to the cost of NATO; tough new trade deals with Mexico, Canada, and China; the defeat of ISIS; and American energy independence. Trump secured those victories in spite of the onslaught he faced from Democrats, its media sycophants, special counsels, the entertainment industry, and several hoaxes that forced him and his team to divert precious time and resources to survive.

Trump will constantly remind voters about those wins and paint the latest special counsel appointment as an attack on Republicans, made easier by Biden’s “MAGA terrorist” screeds. And, let’s be totally honest, had China not unleashed a pandemic upon the world, Trump would have easily won reelection in 2020.

In contrast, several candidates have base fundraising operations, but nothing compared to the Trump money machine. Some candidates have strong records of accomplishments, especially governors like Florida’s Ron DeSantis and South Carolina’s Nikki Haley. Others candidates mostly have talking points earned as Trump officials like Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo. Then there are legislators like Tim Scott and Ted Cruz with great credentials, but few real results. Finally, there are the NeverTrumpers like Liz Cheney and Larry Hogan who stand no chance of doing any better than John Kasich did in 2016.

In the most recent post-2022 election survey, an Emerson College poll had Trump at 55% followed by DeSantis at 25%, and Pence at 8%. A Harvard-Harris poll had Trump at 46%, DeSantis at 28%, and Don’t Know/Unsure at 10%. No other candidate secured more than 7% in the poll. If Trump isn’t running, DeSantis hits 46%, with Don’t Know/Unsure at 18% and Pence at 15%. The same poll had Trump beating Joe Biden by two points and Kamala Harris by seven points. It had DeSantis tied with Biden and beating Harris by three points. More voters say Biden shouldn’t run again than those who say Trump shouldn’t run again. A Politico-Morning Consult poll from after the midterm elections had Trump at 47% and DeSantis at 33%, with no other candidate above 5%.

Even more notable, a Rasmussen survey found only 20% of Republican likely voters blame Trump for the midterm results, as 43% blame the Republican leadership of Kevin McCarty, Mitch McConnell, and Ronna McDaniel. Barring a health crisis, there is little hard evidence that Trump would lose a mano-a-mano primary slugfest against a bunch of other Republicans, especially with his money and self-marketing advantages.

I’d submit that if Republicans really want to defeat Trump in the Republican primary, two top candidates will have to think outside-the-box and do something totally unprecedented. If Republicans want to beat Trump, then Ron DeSantis should form a ticket with Tim Scott sometime in the next four months and run in the Republican primary as a ticket. Tell Republican voters now that if DeSantis defeats Trump in 2024, he will run in the General Election with Scott as his Vice-Presidential nominee. They should barnstorm the country as a ticket starting early in 2023, bringing a powerful one-two punch to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Such a move would destabilize Trump and severely scare the Left.

It also would do four critical things. First, it would excite Republican voters who already love DeSantis and view Scott very favorably. After being demoralized by the “meh” midterm results, Republicans need a boost to get them back in the game. This announcement would do that.

Next, it would generate a massive fundraising opportunity, as large and small donors would “get” the strength of the ticket. Both men fully support the popular Trump policies without the Trump downside with core voter segments. Scott would be the first minority candidate on the Republican ticket, which will pull even more minority voters to the Republican Party than have joined since 2016. Just imagine Scott debating Harris in October 2024.

Then, it would instantly divert attention from Trump to the ticket. Given no major party candidate has done such a move in modern times, the earned media would be substantial and push Trump to the sideline. It might also garner scores of endorsements from Republican office holders across the country. A DeSantis-Scott primary ticket would tantalize voters with control of The White House for a possible sixteen years.

Finally, the ticket would be very tough for Trump to attack. He might be able to pick off each man running solo, but he’d have a much harder time attacking such an exciting ticket. DeSantis is the most successful Republican over the last four years in one of the more critical red states. Scott oozes authenticity and a strong moral base. Trump will have to thread a needle to disparage the ticket without hurting himself.

Maybe Trump can be beaten in a Republican primary the normal way, but I wouldn’t bet my house on it. Trump was an outside-the-box candidate in 2016. If Republicans really want to beat him in 2024, they also need to think outside-the-box by throwing a powerful DeSantis-Scott ticket at him.