One Year Out, Polling Doesn’t Look Good for Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted

It is possible Ramaswamy will win, but Husted will lose. I truly wish Trump would have taken more time before endorsing Husted to see if there were stronger candidates.

***Dubliners: skip to the P.P.S. at the bottom to see revealing video that DEI really is driving the redistricting issue***

Calm down my friends on the Right and temper your giddiness my friends on the Left. One year is a lifetime in politics, so lots can and will happen between now and Election Day 2026. Nonetheless, given that Ohio is a +13 Donald Trump state, any reputable polling that shows a close race for statewide offices IS a cause for concern. I have a lot of faith in RealClearPolitics when it comes to listing polls or not, as their team does an excellent job shifting through the cross-tabs to ensure a poll is legitimate if listed. Thus, my friends on the Right shouldn’t dismiss the Bowling Green poll below. That said, they also shouldn’t freak out about it. As I said, it is early.

So, let me throw down a few thoughts on the Bowling Green poll in terms of the Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown U.S. Senate race and the Vivek Ramaswamy versus Amy Acton Governor’s race (I’m ignoring Tim Ryan because he hasn’t jumped in and this polling undermines his case to do so).

First, as I warned back in August in “Don’t Dismiss Sherrod Brown’s U.S. Senate Bid Because He Lost in 2024,” the U.S. Senate race is going to be close. I’m not entirely surprised Brown is ahead. I previously noted:

Despite folks jumping on the Husted bandwagon after his appointment to the U.S. Senate, lots of Ohioans on the right and middle have lukewarm feelings about Husted. Many on the right don’t believe he is truly conservative and are rightly suspicious of his new-found love of Trump given his previous overt and long-term hostility to Trump, including being booed at a Trump rally (see the video at this link).

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As for the middle, given the debacle that has become the Intel project of which Husted is the Head Cheerleader and Ohio’s weak private sector job growth during his tenure with DeWine (Ohio is up a paltry net of 142,600 jobs since January 1, 2019, or just under 22,000 annually), Brown has strong bases for hitting Husted’s management of Ohio’s economy and appealing to Trump’s blue collar voters and the middle.

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Moreover, Husted never faced a tough race in his entire political career that he didn’t find a way to avoid…For the first time in his career, Husted will have to actually defeat a well-funded opponent with high name ID and a demonstrated appeal to Trump blue collar voters and, as noted above, he will have to do it during a mid-term election in which history is against him.

Husted has a glass jaw that Brown could shatter. Plus, with this latest polling, national Democrat donors will be incentivized to pour money into Brown’s campaign hoping he could be the pathway to retaking the U.S. Senate. Brown, therefore, won’t lack for funding to get out his message.

Next, Donald Trump brings a lot of uncertainty to these races. Media reports looking at the Bowling Green poll noted:

BGSU found President Donald Trump’s approval rating has steadily fallen among Ohio voters, and now stands at a -10 favorability rating. This is a decline from his +6 favorable rating among Ohioans in February and -1 favorable rating in April.

According to the poll, 60% of Ohioans oppose Trump’s tariffs, 69% oppose changing the Department of Defense’s name to the Department of War and 63% think governors should have the ability to decide if the National Guard is deployed in their state. Nearly three-fourths of Ohioans believe tariffs will benefit the wealthy.

As the government shutdown enters its fourth week, 46% of Ohioans said they blamed Trump “a great deal” for the shutdown. He received the most blame for the shutdown, with 41% of Ohioans placing blame on congressional Republicans, and 34% saying the same about congressional Democrats.

Do I think these numbers are 100% accurate or hard-baked? No, but they demonstrate a reality that Husted and Ramaswamy will have to deal with over the next year. Midterm elections aren’t kind to the party controlling the White House. If Trump can’t get trade deals squared away with key allies and China and we don’t see strong economic growth re jobs and wages by next August, Republicans will face headwinds.

In terms of the governor’s race, I suspect part of the issue for why Ramaswamy isn’t firmly ahead of “Shut Down Ohio Amy”™️ Acton is because he has spent too much time raising money and too little time giving Ohioans details of what he will do as governor. Sure, he throws conservative pablum at attendees of his speeches, but his website remains largely devoid of any details about what he will do. That absence of details may not matter for experienced candidates and might be enough for activist speech attendees, but Ramaswamy has NO track record upon which Main Street Ohioans can base their support for him. Four sentences on a website just won’t cut it for many Ohioans, especially moderate Republicans, independents, and Trump Democrats (i.e., blue collar workers). I’m not suggesting he has to put out a thirteen-page, single-spaced platform like I did when I explored a run for governor in 2023, but four sentences, really? In stark contrast, Acton has nine separate issues on her website with links to details on how she will handle each issue.

I also have seen an undercurrent on social media FROM THE RIGHT over Ramaswamy’s religion and cultural views. Though not widespread, it is clear some Christian conservatives aren’t yet comfortable with Ramaswamy’s religious beliefs and his explanation that it is monotheistic. Similarly, I think his remarks last December about “American culture” continue to undermine his support given the current debate on the prolific use of H-1B visas by Corporate America to bring Indian workers to America to do work some Americans believe they can do. As the data shows, “The H-1B, or high-skill visa program, is overwhelmingly used by Indians. They make up about 75% of all petitioners, far outpacing even the next highest group, Chinese workers, who make up under 12%.” The last thing Trump’s “jock” blue collar supporters want to hear from a “skinny, nerd valedictorian” is that they weren’t raised right and he was so is better than they are. Neither of these issues are fair as it relates to what Ramaswamy wants to do for Ohio, but they are perception hurdles he needs to overcome in the coming year. Again, if his campaign provided Ohioans with more details about his proposed agenda, then I suspect these issues would fade away.

Finally, one has to wonder how this polling will influence Ramaswamy’s pick for his running mate. If Shut Down Ohio Amy really is close, then his team may select a female running mate to put forth a more diverse ticket. With Ramaswamy being a Franklin County resident, that likely puts State Senators Jane Timken and Kristina Roegner in play—though the latter is currently running for Ohio Treasurer. That race is turning out to be a crowded one on the Republican side, with four other candidates declared. My guess is Roegner would gladly bow out to become Ramaswamy’s running mate, as it puts her in the driver’s seat for the 2034 governor’s race. For my two cents, given his lack of political experience, as was evident during his brief DOGE tenure, I would strongly urge Ramaswamy to pick someone with deep experience getting things done IN GOVERNMENT. Government is not the private sector, so what he did in the latter has little bearing on what he will be able to get done in the former. He needs a pit bull running mate with experience slaying the bureaucracy.

A year from now, I just don’t think a majority of Ohioans will support Shut Down Ohio Amy over Ramaswamy. Shut Down Ohio Amy served as the health czar for Mike Dewine and Husted who loudly pushed to shut down Ohio aggressively during the pandemic. Unfortunately, for Husted, every time Ramaswamy tags Shut Down Ohio Amy as the shut down queen, she can point to Husted as her co-conspirator shut down Ohio king. Under no scenario will that help Husted in his race against Brown, as it will remind conservatives and Trump’s blue collar supporters that Husted hurt them economically, spiritually, and emotionally. Ask Mitt Romney (and John McCain) what happens when conservatives undervote or stay home. Thus, it is possible Ramaswamy will win, but Husted will lose. In fact, Shut Down Ohio Amy should include images of her with Husted in every mail piece and ad she runs. That may or may not help her, but it would help Brown. I truly wish Trump would have taken more time before endorsing Husted to see if there were stronger candidates who didn’t carry his shut down Ohio baggage. NeverTrumper and moderate DeWine’s decision on who filled J.D. Vance’s U.S. Senate seat should have had little to do with who Trump backed for the special U.S. Senate election in 2026.

P.S. Is it me, or does Acton’s campaign logo seem awfully similar to mine with the sun with rays of light over green grass? Her yellow sun’s color is identical to mine. I’m not aware of ANY Ohio campaign doing that before I did it. I guess I should be flattered.

P.P.S. For those Dubliners who have doubted my premise that Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion is driving the Democrat board of education members and candidates, listen carefully to this video of candidate Tara Seward in which she unequivocally says diversity is more important than feeder issues.