Ohio: Where Republicans Spend More Than Progressive Democrats in Illinois

Send this to your state senator and state representative asking them to explain how they are different than progressive Illinois Democrats. A pig with our favored lipstick on is still a pig.

I will leave analyzing the minor details to other groups, as I want to focus on the broad brushstrokes of the next biennial state budget for Ohio. While the minor details can matter to this group or that group, the bottom line spending impacts all Ohioans. I know Ohio Republican legislators will point to a red meat social policy to mollify base voters, but I’ve never believed being good on God, guns, babies, and school choice should be enough to prove one’s conservative bona fides (I’m talkling to you, Andrew). One can, dare I say, should save both souls AND money, yes?

Before I touch on the numbers, I think it will be eyeopening to first compare the political makeup of Ohio versus the poster-child state of irresponsible spending, Illinois. Keep in mind, in 2024, Ohio was a +11 Donald Trump state, as Illinois was a +11 Kamala Harris state. I want to focus specifically on the years 2012 to the present, as those years cover the trifecta Republican rule in Ohio from Governor John Kasich to Mike DeWine when the Ohio General Assembly was dominated by Republicans. During that span, the Illinois General Assembly was conversely dominated by Democrats, with Democrats controlling the governor’s office in all but four years. As the table below shows, Republicans held a supermajority in the Ohio Senate and near-supermajorities-supermajorities in the Ohio House since 2010.

Two states over in the progressive haven of Illinois, in contrast to Republican-controlled Ohio, Democrats controlled the Illinois Senate by supermajorities and the Illinois House by near-supermajorities-supermajorities since 2012. Unlike trifecta Republican Ohio, however, Illinois did have divided government when moderate Republican Bruce Rauner won one term as governor.

Other important data points are that (1) in 2010, Illinois possessed about 1.3 million more residents, (2) in 2024, Illinois still contained about 825,000 more residents in Ohio, and (3) both Ohio and Illinois have had among the weakest private sector recoveries from the COVID pandemic across the fifty states and D.C. Let’s pretend more people presumably means higher government spending and higher government spending tends to result in slower private sectors, as the former weighs down the latter.

So, how differently did Ohio Republicans and Illinois Democrats spend money from 2012 to today? Did Ohio’s trifecta Republicans keep spending in check compared to profligate progressive Illinois Democrats?

Let’s look at the actual numbers for the answers.

In Ohio from 2012 to 2027 (under the state budget passed and signed by DeWine last night), General Revenue Fund (GRF) spending will have increased from $26.395 billion to $46.654 billion, which represents a 76.76% increase averaging 5.12% per year. In raw numbers, Ohio GRF spending will have jumped by $20.259 billion in fifteen years. See the chart below for annual details.

How did Democrats do in Illinois during the same span? They took GRF spending from $34 billion in 2012 to $55 billion in 2026, which equates to 61.7% increase, or 4.4% per year. In all likelihood, the 2027 GRF budget in Illinois will come in at around $57 billion, thereby pushing the increase to 67.7%, or 4.5% per year. In raw numbers, Illinois GRF spending has skyrocketed by $21 billion. If we assume the 2027 budget in Illinois will match the $2.29 billion annual average increase under Governor J.B. Pritzker, the raw number will reach about $23 billion in 2027. See the chart below from Illinois Policy for annual details.

To summarize, in the fifteen years from 2012 to 2027, Ohio’s GRF spending increases SURPASSED the GRF spending increases in Illinois by roughly 9-percentage points (76.76% versus 67.7%) and annually by 0.72%. Even using raw numbers, Ohio’s $20.259 billion jump is nearly as much as the expected $23 billion increase in Illinois, which had a 2012 base GRF budget that was almost $8 billion MORE THAN Ohio’s 2012 GRF base budget. This outcome should shock the living shit out of you. After all, what is the point of trifecta supermajority Republican control if that control results in GREATER spending increases than what are occurring under trifecta supermajority Democrat control? We EXPECT Democrat control to result in higher spending. When you punch the button for your Republican Ohio House and Ohio Senate candidates, are you expecting them to beat the spending patterns in Democrat-controlled Illinois? Regardless, that is exactly what you are getting.

The reality is both Ohio and Illinois put the federal government in control of their budgets when they unwisely expanded Medicaid under Obamacare. As Medicaid enrollment exploded, GRF spending also exploded. As long as the national economy keeps chugging along, we can ignore the growing state spending obligations. When the next recession occurs, however, the massive GRF spending increases since 2012 will require enormous spending cuts or even larger income tax increases to balance Ohio’s budget. Because of Medicaid expansion and federal policies, those spending cuts cannot come from the Medicaid program, so programs like education, transportation, and corrections that are already being cannibalized by Medicaid spending will take the brunt of the spending cuts. At the same time, Ohioans who lose their jobs during the recessions will enroll in expanded Medicaid, thereby exacerbating the spending madness.

You should send this column to your state senator and state representative and ask them to explain how they are different than Democrats in deeply progressive Illinois. A pig with our favored lipstick on is still a pig.

P.S. Please consider donating to Opportunity Ohio to help us match the generous challenge grants we have been awarded. Every $1.00 donated will get matched in a manner that results in it becoming $7.00, so help us hit the magic number of $25,000. Thank you in advance!!!!