My Reaction to J.D. Vance's Munich Speech

Europe from 2016 to 2024 showed Donald Trump he needed to take this approach if he is to shake the foundations of Europe to finally get them to be realistic about China and to treat America properly.

Below is a slightly edited email I sent to my European friends who pinged me about J.D. Vance’s Munich speech.

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Good to hear from you. I’ve read the full speech and seen commentary from both continents and clips on it. I think at its core the Trump Administration has made the decision to play hardball with “Europe” (defined as: national leaders, European Union (EU) bureaucrats, and elites) across the board. I think they came to this conclusion based on how Europe treated Donald Trump and his policies in his first term and, equally importantly, how Europe responded to America during the Joe Biden interregnum. Ultimately, I think Trump believes Europe will again try to wait him out with the hope that he and his MAGA movement will be vanquished again in 2028 when they again will deal with globalists. Thus, hardball is required.

Here are some of the core issues, as I see it:

(1) For too long, Europe has used EU entities to thwart and undermine the U.S. and its businesses. Whether it is the Common Agricultural Policy or the use of Regfare (regulatory lawfare) to fine/impede/weaken U.S. trade or the imposition of tariffs and other monetary barriers, Europe has abused the U.S. to protect its markets from U.S. competition and help its own companies against stronger, more innovative U.S. companies, especially in tech. There is no equivalent activity coming from the U.S. to European companies.

(2) The utter refusal after the fall of the U.S.S.R. to invest in its own defense, thereby putting the financial and military burden of its defense on U.S. taxpayers via NATO. Trump tried to change this in his first term, but most EU countries gave him lip service. I know it sounds silly to European ears, but nothing gets on the nerves of Americans more than being lectured by Europeans about the lack of universal health care in the U.S., which we find hard to do federally both philosophically and financially due to how much we spend on global defense, including the defense of Europe, knowing that the only reason Europe can provide universal health care and other social welfare programs is because they underfund defense given America’s defense umbrella under which they live. It is truly maddening. Plus, we spent trillions and bled enormously ending two massive wars in Europe and rebuilding it economically after those wars. That should have bought us perpetual gratitude from Europe.

(3) European climate policies disconnected from reality. Scientifically, there just is not the case to do what Europe and, especially, Germany has done re energy. The entire Nord Stream 1 and 2 move that INCREASED German and European reliance on Russian natural gas at the same time screaming about the threat of Putin/Russia was the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen geopolitically. Green energy is NOT cleaner than natural gas/petrol when the entire end-to-end analysis is included in the assessment. From the massive physical destruction and pollution from open pit mining (largely in poor Africa and South America, of course) for the precious metals needed for green batteries to the pollution from shipping those items to China to the processing by China fueled by coal to the shipping to move the refined components to western markets to the physical and environmental danger from heavier green cars due to their batteries and the danger of lithium fires, as well as the tire and braking pollution from heavier green cars, to the pollution from the green components once replaced, green energy just isn’t very green. Plus, unilateral economic disarmament of using natural gas/petrol when China and India are adding coal-fired power plants at a record pace is simply absurd.

(4) On Ukraine, the reality is that there is no appetite in Europe or America to do what would be required to push Russia back behind the 2014 lines. None. There never has been. Few American or European families are willing to send their young sons to fight and die for what is little more than a border war in far eastern Europe. Thus, it is time to cut a deal that ends the madness, which means, yes, Russia will get to keep some Ukrainian territory and, no, Ukraine, will never be permitted by the U.S. to join NATO. Very few people on the Right in America believe Putin will launch another war against a NATO member. Russia/Putin are viewed as regional players that happen to possess nukes. Fair or not, part of this view is due to the Left’s idiotic Russia Gate hoax from 2016-2020 that pushed Putin as this global puppet master. He is not. Trump is cleaning up the messes that U.S. weakness under Barack Obama and Biden created.

(5) I fully appreciate your point re the Trump Administration tolerating or even promoting/supporting AfD and other “far right” parties. My only pushback would be these: (a) “far right” often times is in the eye of the beholder and is a label grossly misused/abused by the Left and its media sycophants—why do we never read/hear about the “far left”? and (b) the entire concept of cordon sanitaire is simply anti-democratic; meaning, Europe marginalizes and dismisses the votes of its citizens who support parties deemed “bad.” Some of those parties may be bad, may have been bad, or may articulate bad ideas, BUT meaningful numbers of Europeans vote for those parties, so deserve their votes to have impact in forming governments and executing power. For Americans, it feels very similar to the Left labeling MAGA voters Nazis, terrorists, fascists, and/or totalitarians (63 million voters in 2016, 74 million in 2020, and 77 million in 2024, which was the most). I suppose in some way it “feels” like the boy crying wolf ( very much like Putin being the big bad wolf).

(6) Finally, Europe (again, especially Germany) being more than happy to cozy up to China on trade issues to the detriment of America. That pissed Trump et al. off ENORMOUSLY.

With all of that said, I do think there is a huge possible silver lining in all of this "sturm und drang.” Namely, I believe the goal of the Trump Administration is to get Europe to realize that the “West” (defined as: America, Canada, and Europe) faces an existential threat from a rising China and its 5,000 year view of history. Trump’s modus operandi is to always start any process/negotiation by stretching the pitch to be as long and wide as possible, which allows him to move towards a middle that is closer to where he wants to be than where his opponent wants to be. By moving the goals out via extreme/harsh/wild statements and positions, he can negotiate to a solution that is close to where he really wants to be.

In the case of the West versus China, that is to have the West be a true free trade environment (no tariffs, taxes, barriers, regfare) that pushes unified trade policies against China in which all parties meet their fair share obligation of defense against China. Together we thrive, divided we fall. Given our national debt at $37 trillion, American cannot continue the status quo. Europe from 2016 to 2024 showed Trump he needed to take this approach if he is to shake the foundations of Europe to finally get real about China and treat America properly. I may be wrong, but suspect I’m more right than wrong. You see this same approach with his whole U.S. taking Gaza. Trump is taking that position (i.e., stretching the pitch) to finally get Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia to step up and solve the Palestine issue once and for all so the West can properly focus on China. Same for the Panama Canal and Greenland.

Hope all of this makes sense, my friends.