"Is Ohio Adding Population?” Isn’t the Right Question—“Is Ohio Adding the Right Kind of Population?” Is

We now know that Joe Biden flooded America with over ten million illegal immigrants and “refugees,” with much of the flood occurring in 2024 and 2025, including Haitians to Springfield.

The question of whether Ohio is adding population came to the forefront last week as JobsOhio and Mike DeWine promoted the latest U.S. Census Bureau data indicating that the answer is “yes.” As I detail below, the answer isn’t that clear actually. Even if Ohio is adding population finally, I think the more pertinent question is whether Ohio is adding the right kind of population. Now, my left-wing readers, don’t start throwing the race card at me. By “kind,” I don’t mean white or black; rather, by “kind,” I mean legal versus illegal AND income earning versus non-income earning.

Keep in mind, even if the Census data is right and even if the growth is the right kind of growth, our pace of growth from 2020 to 2025 is SLOWER than our already sloth-like growth from 2010 to 2020. In terms of the latter, Ohio added 250,000 people from 2010 to 2020. At the half-decade mark since 2020, Ohio has added roughly 102,000 people. Doubling that to finish off the decade would land Ohio by 2030 with just 204,000 more people, or just 82% of our 2010 to 2020 growth rate. That shouldn’t be celebrated, as Ohio lost an Electoral Vote and congressional member after the 2020 census because we lost pace to the other forty-nine states. So, having even slower growth over the 2020s likely will lead to more political power erosion, which I predicted would happen in my report “Projected 2050 Population & Political Power Series” from June of 2022. JobsOhio and DeWine are like parents of the guy who is near last in a marathon celebrating that his second ten mile pace was only just a little bit slower than his first ten mile pace. That ain’t winning, friends.

As an aside, most of you haven’t taken the time to read the fifteen years of extensive public policy work we’ve done at Opportunity Ohio. How often do you read this column in which I cite to the previous work we did? The answer is a lot. Go to the link above on the population and political power series we did in 2022. It really is groundbreaking work that anticipated what we are seeing today. The predictions I made back in 2014 on expanding Medicaid proved to be just as accurate. The same goes for Ohio’s private sector growth without enacting right-to-work. And Ohio’s inability to compete with other states without eliminating the state income tax. And the increasing burden of property taxes on Ohioans and Ohio’s competitiveness without consolidation and restraining government pay and benefits. And the “bell curve electorate” that has come to be separating college educated voters from non-college educated voters. I could go on, but you get the point. We’ve been in the trenches throughout the fifteen years of Republican governors and the Republicans holding supermajorities in the Ohio General Assembly screaming from the mountain top for those policymakers to use their power to fix Ohio. Instead of choosing Reaganesque bold colors, they’ve painted in pale pastels. Incrementalism and inertia have won over going big and bold energetically. Imagine what Ohio would look like today had they listened to us fifteen years ago Like Ron DeSantis, Greg Abbott, and Republicans in Florida and Texas. It is maddening. Unlike some groups that curry favor with the Establishment or refuse to call a spade a spade, we gather the data, analyze it, and make policy recommendations to make Ohio stronger and more prosperous no matter who is in charge. And we certainly don’t hide behind anonymity. Please think about supporting our work. To those of you who already do, many, many thanks my friends!!!

At any rate...

According the U.S. Census Bureau, here are the population totals for 2020 and 2021, along with population ESTIMATES for 2022, 2023, and 2025:

• 2020: 11,798,534

• 2021: 11,761,443 (-37,091 from 2020)

• 2022: 11,764,950 (-33,584)

• 2023: 11,808,390 (+9,856)

• 2024: 11,860,621 (+62,087)

• 2025: 11,900,510 (+101,976)

These figures mean that Ohio GAINED just 9,856 resident from 2020 to 2023, with another 91,000 in 2024 and 2025 (we’ll get back to them in a minute).

According to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), based on all tax returns filed, here are the net in- or out-migration figures for the years currently available:

• 2020-2021: -7,745

• 2021-2022: -5,804

• 2022-2023: -6,913

These figures indicate Ohio LOST 20,462 taxpayers from 2020 to 2023. We won’t have the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 numbers until 2026 and 2027.

Why the discrepancy between the two federal government entities? Let me explain below.

The Census figures are always only estimates, as it doesn’t literally go around America counting every person. In contrast, the IRS figures are based on actual tax returns that all Americans must file every year in which they track if Matt Mayer filed his tax return from Ohio in 2020 then Texas in 2021. If he did, that would be an out-migration. Ohio -1; Texas +1. If the opposite happened, that would be an in-migration. Ohio +1; Texas -1. So, when JobsOhio, DeWine, and their proponents claim Ohio added citizens since 2020, they are basing that claim on Census estimates, not actual hard data. They might be right, but they also might be wrong. We will know once the IRS data comes out over the next two years.

We also have anecdotal data from both United Van Lines and U-Haul, which releases annual data on in- and out-migration for every state based on who used their services to move. As I wrote back in January in “If We Gauge Ohio’s Health By How People Vote With Their Feet, Ohio Is Sick” (see that, I’ve now referred to our past work twice:-):

For years, both United Van Lines and U-Haul have published reports showing where people are moving to and from. Both entities just released their 2025 reports. These reports capture both lower-to-middle class self-movers (U-Haul) and middle-to-upper class paid movers (United Van Lines). According to United Van Lines, more people left Ohio in 2025 than came to Ohio, with those leaving due to retirement, lifestyle, and, of course, jobs, while those who came did so for family and costs. In 2025, per U-Haul, so many Ohioans left that Ohio suffered the largest one-year drop as it went from 14th in 2024 all the way down to 43rd.

So, maybe Ohio did add 102,000 people since 2022 per the Census Bureau, or, maybe the Census estimates are wrong. The United Van Lines and U-Haul data are consistent with both the IRS data and the weak job growth in Ohio over those same years, including a NET LOSS of 4,500 jobs in 2025.

One curious asterisk comes from the Census estimates showing Ohio added people in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Why the SUDDEN SURGE in population in 2024 and 2025? What happened in those two years? Ohio’s job growth only added 25,100 jobs in 2024 and lost 4,500 jobs in 2025, so it wasn’t a jobs boom that lured people to Ohio. Republicans didn’t eliminate the state income tax to tempt folks to come here, so tax policy isn’t the answer. Intel got massively delayed, so that project isn’t the answer. We now know that Joe Biden flooded America with over ten million illegal immigrants and “refugees,” with much of the flood occurring in 2024 and 2025. As you may recall, Ohio, specifically in Springfield, got flooded with roughly 20,000 Haitians under the Temporary Protected Status program (TPS). The Trump Administration has revoked TPS coverage over Haitians, with a two-week delay given last week. Not surprisingly, DeWine wants them to stay permanently, as he believes Ohio isn’t just for Ohioans. If Donald Trump doesn’t blink again—he really is guilty of being TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) Trump—then Ohio would lose population as those Haitians leave.

Where else might Ohio have gained population? According to Artificial Intelligence, Ohio could have gained “low-income workers, students, retirees, and dependents” who don’t file tax returns. Those aren’t the people we want moving here; rather, we want middle-to-high income workers who are working and DO have income to report to the IRS. Thus, the combination of TPS Haitians, other illegal immigrants like Somalians who are fleecing our entitlement programs, and Americans who don’t work or make money that has to be reported to the IRS could account for most or all of the Census estimate of Ohio’s 102,000 population gain.

These details don’t make the JobsOhio/DeWine “win” quite the win they claim it is, does it? It seems JobsOhio and DeWine are pro-illegal immigrant advocates who don’t care how those illegal immigrants harm actual Ohioans—from taking their jobs to undermining their wages to driving housing prices higher to physically harming them criminally. That seems an odd stance to take given both survive on taxpayer funds. Again, why can’t Ohio’s political leaders just shoot straight with us about how Ohio is really doing? Honestly, they can’t be because it would result in them being fired by voters.

P.S. The Wall Street Journal editorial above makes the case on repealing Jonh Kasich’s Medicaid expansion under Obamacare. It makes Vivek Ramaswamy’s refusal to adopt that policy I’ve long recommended all the more vexing. What will he and the Ohio General Assembly do if the federal government does what it should do and drops the federal reimbursement rate for Medicaid expansion from 90% to 68%? I can tell you what they will do: raise taxes to cover the massive spending increases or repeal Medicaid expansion. Why wait? Be bold and repeal it on day one.