China Is the Target of Trump's Trade War
Check out the extended interview I did on the Ohio House passed biennial budget, including my one big positive and two big negatives on the bill.
A couple of items on the tariff trade fight with China. First, see the video below to get a sense of how China see America and its people—dumb, fat, and lazy.
Next, as I’ve written about in the past, Victor Davis Hanson is one of the best writers and thinkers in America today. In the last week, he penned two pieces on the tariff trade fight launched by President Donald Trump. In the first piece, Ten Tariff Questions Never Asked, three of the key questions he poses hit the nail on the head:
2. Do nations prefer surpluses or deficits?
Why do most nations prefer trade surpluses and protective tariffs?
Are Europe, Asia, China, and others stupid? Are they suicidal in continuing their trade surpluses and protective or asymmetrical tariffs?
Is the United States uniquely brilliant in maintaining a half-century of cumulative trade deficits? Do Americans alone discover the advantages of a $1 trillion annual trade deficit and small or nonexistent tariffs?
Why don't America's trading partners prefer deficits like ours -- given we supposedly believe they are either advantageous or perhaps irrelevant?
3. Would our trade partners prefer to trade places with us?
Would our trade partners prefer to have America's supposed benefits of a $1-trillion trade deficit? Would the United States then "suffer" like they do by running up $200 billion annual surpluses?
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7. What about North American neighbors?
If the U.S. was running a $63 billion-plus trade surplus with Canada, refusing to meet its NATO requirements to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense, and instead spent only 1.37%, would Canada become concerned?
If Mexico were running a $171 billion trade deficit with the U.S., if Americans in Mexico were sending over $60 billion per year out of Mexico to the U.S., and if American drug dealers were making $20 billion by selling fentanyl and opioids to Mexico, would Mexico be angry?
I think we know the answer to those questions, which is why Trump’s trade fight is vital to America’s renewal.
In a second piece, China Would Lose a ‘Trade War’ With the US—’Gradually, then Suddenly,’ Davis writes:
China is running a nearly $1-trillion trade surplus with the world. Its mercantilism is the result of market manipulations, product dumping, asymmetrical tariffs, patent, copyright and technology theft, a corrupt Chinese judicial system, and Western laxity—or what might be mildly called “bullying.” The U.S. accounts for about a third of China’s trade surplus, with most of the EU and Asian nations accounting for the other two-thirds.
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China has done everything possible to incur global distrust and fear.
Most of the world accepts that the COVID-19 epidemic that killed and maimed millions worldwide was birthed in a Wuhan virology lab under the auspices of the People’s Liberation Army. The world also remembers that China and the Chinese-controlled WHO lied repeatedly about the origins and spread of the virus.
The global public may recall that China stopped all domestic flights out of Wuhan on the internal news of the lab leak of the virus, while for days greenlighting nonstop air travel to major European and American cities.
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One, if it ever comes to a real trade war, remember that nations with the higher tariffs and larger trade surpluses usually lose, given that their economies are far more dependent on mercantile exports and trade imbalances. Psychologically, it is far harder to convince the world of victimhood when tariffs and surpluses illustrate contrived trade aggression.
Two, consensual societies are far more flexible in dealing with external pressures and volatile public opinion. True, Trump must face a midterm election in 18 months. However, Xi Jinping may soon face a third of his export factory workforce unemployed—in a society that has no mechanism for them to vent tensions and objections peacefully.
Three, trillions of trade dollars are at stake as a result of the U.S.-China standoff. And should China escalate, it may well lose elsewhere as well. There are nearly 300,000 Chinese students here in the U.S. and now very few Americans in China—plus an unknown number of young Chinese males who mysteriously and illegally crossed the border en masse during the Biden illegal alien influx. A small percentage—but still a significant number, say 1%, or 3,000 “students”—are likely actively engaged in espionage. More importantly, thousands of PhDs and MAs return to China as now Westernized researchers, professors, and government and corporate scientists in technology, engineering, and mathematics.
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In sum, if the Trump administration can conclude first-round—good enough but not yet perfect— trade deals in the next few weeks with major EU countries, Japan, and other Asian and Pacific powerhouses, and then redirect to China, it will gain both political support and economic advantage. It also must message strategically, given that China, for a half-century, has waged a quiet trade war that has now birthed a loud reaction. So, the administration must remember that the current status quo is the aberration, and its correction is a return to normalcy.
After all, in the end, the EU and Asian nations should know the difference between their protective and rules-based ally, with whom they have run up huge and unfair surpluses, and a rogue bully, whose flagrant violations of trade norms and unfair tariffs have ensured them large trade deficits. And if they don’t calibrate their economic self-interest, but act emotionally, then they should at least consider realpolitik facts, such as which nation has the larger economy, the more open political system, and the largest and most lethal military that, in extremis, would come to their aid—against a bullying China.
Hanson accurately frames how Trump’s trade war with China will unfold IF Americans can absorb the short-term pain and the western democracies make the smart choice between America and China. If Trump cannot tame China due to too many Americans sticking to their instant gratification mentality and due to weak knees by our allies, then the future really will be China’s future. See the video below of Trump signing an Executive Order on tariff complainers.
In case you missed it, catch my weekly interview on the Bruce Hooley Show on 98.9FM The Answer. Also, I did a long interview with Summit County Republicans Chairman Bryan Williams on his Chairman’s Hour on 1420AM and 102.5FM The Answer where we did a deep dive on the Ohio House passed biennial budget. Listen to both interviews for additional insights.
P.S. Along with DOGE finding huge numbers of fraudulent recipients in the Social Security program, it also found huge numbers getting unemployment compensation benefits to the tune of $400 million per year. Why are Democrats opposed to DOGE finding these fraudulent expenditures that waste taxpayer funds and add to the national debt? Why indeed…
