Thoughts on the Ohio Primary Election Results With An Eye Towards November

Ignore the headlines and look closely at what the numbers are saying, which is that Republicans in Ohio are in trouble.

With the dust settled on the primary election, let me share what I think can be gleaned from the results and what those results mean for November. In this column, I will cover the Vivek Ramaswamy-Amy Acton Governor’s race, the Jon Husted-Sherrod Brown U.S. Senate race, the Secretary of State primary race, the Treasurer primary race, and future control of the U.S. House and U.S. Senate.

Let me set the scene now that the primaries are over. The general election is six months from now. Though stock markets are hitting record highs, gas prices also are going higher, hitting more than $4.838 per gallon in Ohio according to AAA. One year ago, Ohioans bought gas for $3.130 per gallon. Private sector job growth since January 2025 has been mediocre-to-negative nationally, with six months of losses and no positive month anywhere close to the 250,000 jobs needed to drive wages up. In Ohio, since Donald Trump took office, Ohio’s private sector has grown by a mere 17,300 jobs, or less than 1,331 jobs per month. That is HORRIFIC. The Iran War hasn’t been resolved as quickly as Trump claimed it would be finished and, worse, we don’t seem close to getting its nuclear material, which I see as a strategic defeat. Trump’s approval ratings are hitting record lows. Beyond these problematic headwinds, history indicates that Republicans will lose ground given Trump’s control of the presidency.

The results on Tuesday echo this tough environment for Republicans.

I don’t give a rats behind what the headlines yesterday said nor what the campaign press offices pumped out. All I care about is what the numbers show. If you move past the headlines and press releases, you will see that the numbers were not good for Republicans in Ohio on Tuesday. Pundits will dismiss the below analysis arguing that you can’t extrapolate a primary election to a general election six months later. To that I say, campaigns should ignore my analysis at their own peril because data shows that voting in November doesn’t change much from May. Right now, momentum and excitement is entirely on the Left. History indicates it will remain on the Left. Beyond that reality, key Republican candidates in Ohio bring baggage to the general election that could result in their losses if not dealt with soon.

Let’s start at the top.