The “Not This Timer” Movement
The 2024 presidential election will be a contrast election with the contrast being age.
I own a first run hardcover edition of Donald Trump’s “Art of the Deal,” which I bought in 1987 as a sixteen-year-old geeky mega-fan. I was such a fan of Trump in high school that my ATM password was his initials, and I would jokingly tell people that I was adopted, as my real dad was Trump. I voted for Trump four times beginning with the Ohio Republican Primary in 2016. I have defended him and his administration at every turn since he came down the escalators in July 2015.
The punchline is I am and always have been a fan of Trump and fervently believe his presidential policies were right for America.
I also believe the massive media bias against him and the Left’s incessant fraudulent slurs about him unfairly and unethically damaged his presidential term doing untold harm to America and its foreign policy, which we are seeing the effects of today in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.
Finally, I believe had the media treated Trump evenhandedly and exposed Joe Biden and his family as the parasites and swindlers they are; had the Left been exposed for its various hoaxes instead of covered up by corrupt FBI, DOJ, Intel, and Obama Administration officials; and had the 2020 election not been influenced improperly by those foregoing items and Mark Zuckerberg’s half-billion dollar get-out-the-Democrat-vote takeover of key city, county, and state processes, then Trump would have easily overcome and surpassed the 43,000-vote deficit in three states to win a second term.
Any reasonable person looking at the wealth of information we now know would conclude Trump got a raw deal and is right to want justice and a second bite of the apple.
All of that being said, I fundamentally don’t believe relitigating those egregiously wrong acts in 2024 is the smart move for Republicans. Understandably, Trump won’t be able to NOT inject those issues into the 2024 election.
Regardless, that isn’t why I’m labeling myself a “Not This Timer.” I’m a “Not This Timer” for two key reasons. First, I think the damage done to Trump by the media and the Left combined with the damage he did to himself with his tone and brusqueness with suburban women and independents will continue to weigh him down. I think that is why despite the devastation to America wrought by Joe Biden in his first 18 months leaving him with the lowest approval rating in modern history coupled with facts we now know about the various hoaxes against Trump, Trump still only leads Biden in 2024 polls by roughly 3-points. He should be crushing Biden.
As a consequence of my job, I talk to a lot of Republicans, conservatives, and independents. The subject of 2024 invariably comes up in those conversations. Though they won’t say so publicly, very few people want to see Trump actually run again. They’ll grudgingly support him if he does in a general election, but believe it would be best for Republicans to nominate someone else. Unlike the Democratic Party, the Republican Party has a very deep and talented bench of players ready to serve. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is at the top of most people’s list, followed by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, and several other top-notch candidates. Most people would love to see a DeSantis-Scott ticket in 2024.
The second and more important reason that I’m a “Not-This-Timer” is because I submit the 2024 presidential election will be a contrast election. After four years of Biden aging sadly and devastatingly before our eyes as he surpasses 80-years-old, the contrast will be focused on age. Will voters really be up for swapping out 81-year-old Biden for 78-year-old Trump no matter how robust Trump seems to be? A recent Harvard-Harris poll found that 70% of Independents, 67% of whites, 57% of Hispanics, and 50% of blacks think Biden is too old to be president. Will those voters ignore Trump’s similar age in 2024?
I don’t think they will. Because of that reality, I suspect a DeSantis challenge to Trump in 2024 might turn out far better than people think it will today. DeSantis will be 46-years-young in 2024 and a stark contrast given his style and energy-level to both Trump and Biden. Republican primary voters just might decide that a vibrant, highly successful DeSantis stands a better chance against a decrepit Biden (or whomever the Democrats nominate), especially with those key voters weary of Trump. A second Trump term would render him an immediate lame duck. Voters will want Trump to become the elder statesman former presidents typically assume after leaving office and use his popularity to win as many red state federal, state, and local races as possible.
It makes sense for Trump to tease a 2024 run for as long as he can to keep his relevance among Republicans high, but he risks a lot if he runs and loses a primary or a second presidential election, especially if voters decide they could have won with someone like DeSantis. All of that being said, should Trump run and win the Republican nomination, I will certainly support him wholeheartedly in the general election.
Until then, I’m the first official member of the “Not-This-Timer” movement.